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Quantifying the Extent to Which Successful Juniors and Successful Seniors are Two Disparate Populations

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Güllich, A., Barth, M., Macnamara, B.N. et al. Quantifying the Extent to Which Successful Juniors and Successful Seniors are Two Disparate Populations: A Systematic Review and Synthesis of Findings. Sports Med 53, 1201–1217 (2023).

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND

To what extent does the pathway to senior elite success build on junior elite success? Evidence from longitudinal studies investigating athletes’ junior-to-senior performance development is mixed; prospective studies have reported percentages of juniors who achieved an equivalent competition level at senior age (e.g., international championships at both times) ranging from 0 to 68%. Likewise, retrospective studies have reported percentages of senior athletes who had achieved an equivalent competition level at junior age ranging from 2 to 100%. However, samples have been heterogeneous in terms of junior age categories, competition levels, sex, sports, and sample sizes.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to establish more robust and generalizable findings via a systematic review and synthesis of findings. We considered three competition levels—competing at a national championship level, competing at an international championship level, and winning international medals—and addressed three questions: (1) How many junior athletes reach an equivalent competition level when they are senior athletes? (2) How many senior athletes reached an equivalent competition level when they were junior athletes? The answers to these questions provide an answer to Question (3): To what extent are successful juniors and successful seniors one identical population or two disparate populations?

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature search in SPORTDiscus, ERIC, ProQuest, PsychInfo, PubMed, Scopus, WorldCat, and Google Scholar until 15 March 2022. Percentages of juniors who achieved an equivalent competition level at senior age (prospective studies) and of senior athletes who had achieved an equivalent competition level at junior age (retrospective studies) were aggregated across studies to establish these percentages for all athletes, separately for prospective and retrospective studies, junior age categories, and competition levels. Quality of evidence was evaluated using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT) version for descriptive quantitative studies.

RESULTS

Prospective studies included 110 samples with 38,383 junior athletes. Retrospective studies included 79 samples with 22,961 senior athletes. The following findings emerged: (1) Few elite juniors later achieved an equivalent competition level at senior age, and few elite seniors had previously achieved an equivalent competition level at junior age. For example, 89.2% of international-level U17/18 juniors failed to reach international level as seniors and 82.0% of international-level seniors had not reached international level as U17/18 juniors. (2) Successful juniors and successful seniors are largely two disparate populations. For example, international-level U17/18 juniors and international-level seniors were 7.2% identical and 92.8% disparate. (3) Percentages of athletes achieving equivalent junior and senior competition levels were the smallest among the highest competition levels and the youngest junior age categories. (4) The quality of evidence was generally high.

DISCUSSION

The findings question the tenets of traditional theories of giftedness and expertise as well as current practices of talent selection and talent promotion.

A PRISMA-P protocol was registered at https://osf.io/gck4a/.

Download the full article HERE.

Check out this previous post about performance relationship between junior and senior athletes.

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    Perfecto para elementos que operan a velocidades altas, tales como ejes o rotores . Se realiza en máquinas especializadas que detectan el desequilibrio en dos o más planos . Es el método más fiable para lograr un desempeño estable.
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    Taladrado selectivo: se quita peso en el punto sobrecargado
    Colocación de contrapesos: como en ruedas o anillos de volantes
    Ajuste de masas: habitual en ejes de motor y partes relevantes
    Equipos profesionales para detectar y corregir vibraciones
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    ✅ Operar en zonas alejadas, ya sea en instalaciones marítimas o centrales solares.

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    – Ajustar el peso (añadiendo o removiendo masa).

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    No hay tiempo para desmontajes (producción crítica).
    El equipo es costoso o difícil de detener.
    Trabajas en áreas donde no hay asistencia mecánica disponible.

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    | Equipo portátil | Servicio externo |
    |—————-|——————|
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    | ✔ Mantenimiento proactivo (previenes daños serios) | ❌ Suele usarse solo cuando hay emergencias |
    | ✔ Ahorro a largo plazo (menos desgaste y reparaciones) | ❌ Costos recurrentes por servicios |

    ¿Qué máquinas se pueden equilibrar?
    Cualquier sistema rotativo, como:
    – Turbinas de vapor/gas
    – Motores industriales
    – Ventiladores de alta potencia
    – Molinos y trituradoras
    – Hélices navales
    – Bombas centrífugas

    Requisito clave: hábitat adecuado para trabajar con precisión.

    Tecnología que simplifica el proceso
    Los equipos modernos incluyen:
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    Análisis en tiempo real (gráficos claros de vibraciones).
    Durabilidad energética (útiles en ambientes hostiles).

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    ¿Por qué esta versión es más efectiva?
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    – Lenguaje persuasivo: Frases como “recurso vital” o “previenes consecuencias críticas” refuerzan el valor del servicio.
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    El equipo de equilibrio es transportable, liviano, lo que le permite ajustar cualquier elemento giratorio en diversos entornos laborales.

  • Vape Scene in Singapore: Embracing Modern Relaxation

    In today’s fast-paced world, people are always looking for ways to unwind, relax, and enjoy the moment — and for many, vaping has become a daily habit. In Singapore, where modern life moves quickly, the rise of vaping culture has brought with it a unique form of downtime . It’s not just about the devices or the clouds of vapor — it’s about flavor, convenience, and finding your own vibe.

    Disposable Vapes: Simple, Smooth, Ready to Go

    Let’s face it — nobody wants to deal with complicated setups all the time. That’s where disposable vapes shine. They’re perfect for people on the move who still want that satisfying hit without the hassle of charging, refilling, or replacing parts.

    Popular models like the VAPETAPE UNPLUG / OFFGRID, LANA ULTRA II, and SNOWWOLF SMART HD offer thousands of puffs in one portable solution . Whether you’re out for the day or just need something quick and easy, these disposables have got your back.

    New Arrivals: Fresh Gear, Fresh Experience

    The best part about being into vaping? There’s always something new around the corner. The latest releases like the ELFBAR ICE KING and ALADDIN ENJOY PRO MAX bring something different to the table — whether it’s richer flavors .

    The ELFBAR RAYA D2 is another standout, offering more than just puff count — it comes with a built-in screen , so you can really make it your own.

    Bundles: Smart Choices for Regular Vapers

    If you vape often, buying in bulk just makes sense. Combo packs like the VAPETAPE OFFGRID COMBO or the LANA BAR 10 PCS COMBO aren’t just practical — they’re also a better deal . No more running out at the worst time, and you save a bit while you’re at it.

    Flavors That Speak to You

    At the end of the day, it’s all about taste. Some days you want something icy and refreshing from the Cold Series, other times you’re craving the smooth, mellow vibes of the Smooth Series. Then there are those sweet cravings — and trust us, the Sweet Series delivers.

    Prefer the classic richness of tobacco? There’s a whole series for that too. And if you’re trying to cut back on nicotine, the Pure Flavor Collection gives you all the flavor without the buzz.

    Final Thoughts

    Vaping in Singapore isn’t just a passing trend — it’s a lifestyle choice for many. With so many options available, from pocket-sized disposables to customizable devices, there’s something for everyone. Whether you’re new to the scene , or a long-time fan, the experience is all about what feels right to you — made personal for you.

  • vapesg
    Vaping in Singapore: More Than Just a Trend

    In today’s fast-paced world, people are always looking for ways to unwind, relax, and enjoy the moment — and for many, vaping has become a preferred method . In Singapore, where modern life moves quickly, the rise of vaping culture has brought with it a stylish escape. It’s not just about the devices or the clouds of vapor — it’s about flavor, convenience, and finding your own vibe.

    Disposable Vapes: Simple, Smooth, Ready to Go

    Let’s face it — nobody wants to deal with complicated setups all the time. That’s where disposable vapes shine. They’re perfect for those who value simplicity who still want that satisfying hit without the hassle of charging, refilling, or replacing parts.

    Popular models like the VAPETAPE UNPLUG / OFFGRID, LANA ULTRA II, and SNOWWOLF SMART HD offer thousands of puffs in one sleek little package . Whether you’re out for the day or just need something quick and easy, these disposables have got your back.

    New Arrivals: Fresh Gear, Fresh Experience

    The best part about being into vaping? There’s always something new around the corner. The latest releases like the ELFBAR ICE KING and ALADDIN ENJOY PRO MAX bring something different to the table — whether it’s richer flavors .

    The ELFBAR RAYA D2 is another standout, offering more than just puff count — it comes with a built-in screen , so you can really make it your own.

    Bundles: Smart Choices for Regular Vapers

    If you vape often, buying in bulk just makes sense. Combo packs like the VAPETAPE OFFGRID COMBO or the LANA BAR 10 PCS COMBO aren’t just practical — they’re also a better deal . No more running out at the worst time, and you save a bit while you’re at it.

    Flavors That Speak to You

    At the end of the day, it’s all about taste. Some days you want something icy and refreshing from the Cold Series, other times you’re craving the smooth, mellow vibes of the Smooth Series. Then there are those sweet cravings — and trust us, the Sweet Series delivers.

    Prefer the classic richness of tobacco? There’s a whole series for that too. And if you’re trying to cut back on nicotine, the Nicotine-Free Range gives you all the flavor without the buzz.

    Final Thoughts

    Vaping in Singapore isn’t just a passing trend — it’s a lifestyle choice for many. With so many options available, from pocket-sized disposables to customizable devices, there’s something for everyone. Whether you’re exploring vaping for the first time , or an experienced user , the experience is all about what feels right to you — your way, your flavor, your style .

  • I am so pleased I happened upon this article. It was precisely what I needed to encounter!

  • Distilling complex concepts into readable content, or what I prefer to call, a minor miracle.

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